Current:Home > FinanceIf the polls just closed, how can AP already declare a winner? -Thrive Financial Network
If the polls just closed, how can AP already declare a winner?
View
Date:2025-04-16 18:39:00
WASHINGTON (AP) — Control of the White House and the narrowly divided Senate and House may hang in the balance on Nov. 5, but don’t expect election night to be all nail-biters and barn burners. Chances are some winners will be declared before a single vote has been tallied, just as the polls close in those states.
So what gives?
Although determining a winner before any votes have been counted may seem counterintuitive, race calls at poll closing time have been a routine part of election nights for decades, even though competitive, hotly contested races that can take hours, days or even weeks to decide tend to be the most memorable and attract the most attention.
The Associated Press will consider multiple factors and analyze available data before determining whether a winner can be declared when polls close in a given state. But the AP will never declare the outcome in a competitive contest before enough votes are counted to make the winner clear.
Uncontested races
Many of the races called just as the polls close are uncontested elections where only one candidate appears on the ballot and is therefore the only possible winner of the race. Voters in some parts of the country live in multimember districts for offices such as state legislature, where more than one candidate is elected in a district. In those districts, an uncontested race is one where the number of candidates on the ballot is equal to or less than the number of seats available in that district.
In the 2024 general election, the AP will declare winners in nearly 2,000 uncontested races, compared with about 4,500 contested races.
Noncompetitive contests
Sometimes it’s possible to declare winners at poll closing time in noncompetitive races with multiple candidates in areas where one political party has an established history of lopsided victories. In these cases, the AP will analyze multiple sources of available data, including the results of AP VoteCast, a comprehensive survey of both voters and nonvoters that determines who voted, how they voted and why, to confirm the outcome.
The AP will not call a race when polls close if AP VoteCast’s results indicate a deviation from the state’s long-standing political trends and voting history. AP VoteCast results will be available for all 50 states, though only a small number will be considered as potential poll close calls. There is no AP VoteCast survey in the District of Columbia, so no contest there will be called when polls close even though the nation’s capital has a long history of overwhelming victories for Democratic candidates.
A handful of states and districts have multiple poll closing times because they are in more than one time zone. In these cases, the AP will not declare a winner before the final poll closing time in that state or district. Florida, Texas and some others begin to release vote results from most of the state shortly after polls close in the earlier time zone. Votes that are already counted from areas in the earlier time zones will also be considered in determining whether a winner can be declared at the moment when the last polls close.
Other election data the AP takes into account include an area’s voting history from recent elections, voter registration statistics and pre-Election Day polling.
What to know about the 2024 Election
- Today’s news: Follow live updates from the campaign trail from the AP.
- Ground Game: Sign up for AP’s weekly politics newsletter to get it in your inbox every Monday.
- AP’s Role: The Associated Press is the most trusted source of information on election night, with a history of accuracy dating to 1848. Learn more.
When the above data points confirm the expected result in a state where either major party has a history of dominating elections, the AP may call the race as soon as voting ends.
____
Read more about how U.S. elections work at Explaining Election 2024, a series from The Associated Press aimed at helping make sense of the American democracy. The AP receives support from several private foundations to enhance its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
veryGood! (3978)
Related
- Costco membership growth 'robust,' even amid fee increase: What to know about earnings release
- Wimbledon 2024 bracket: Latest scores, results for tournament
- 2 dead, more than a dozen others injured in Detroit shooting, Michigan State Police say
- NHL No. 1 draft pick Macklin Celebrini signs contract with San Jose Sharks
- The 401(k) millionaires club keeps growing. We'll tell you how to join.
- Pink resumes tour after health scare, tells fans 'We are going to shake our juicy booties'
- Vatican excommunicates ex-ambassador to U.S., Archbishop Carlo Maria Viganò, declares him guilty of schism
- Margot Robbie Is Pregnant, Expecting First Baby With Husband Tom Ackerley
- The FBI should have done more to collect intelligence before the Capitol riot, watchdog finds
- Target Circle Week is here: What to know about deals, discounts, how to sign up
Ranking
- Paige Bueckers vs. Hannah Hidalgo highlights women's basketball games to watch
- Gov. Whitmer shuts down 2024 presidential talk but doesn’t hide her ambitions in timely book launch
- Even the kitchen sink: Snakes and other strange items intercepted at TSA checkpoints
- Norwegian cyclist Andre Drege, 25, dies after crashing in race
- Meet first time Grammy nominee Charley Crockett
- Klay Thompson posts heartfelt message to Bay Area, thanks Warriors
- Inside Naya Rivera's Incredibly Full Life and the Legacy She Leaves Behind
- Key events in the troubled history of the Boeing 737 Max
Recommendation
'Most Whopper
Michigan friends recount the extraordinary moment they rescued a choking raccoon
2024 WNBA Rookie of the Year award rankings by odds
June sizzles to 13th straight monthly heat record. String may end soon, but dangerous heat won’t
IRS recovers $4.7 billion in back taxes and braces for cuts with Trump and GOP in power
NHL No. 1 draft pick Macklin Celebrini signs contract with San Jose Sharks
Padres place pitcher Yu Darvish on restricted list; out indefinitely
LeBron James discusses son Bronny, new Lakers coach JJ Redick